Anticipating consequences of War with Iran

The New York Times, today:

Western powers “know that Iran is not after nuclear weapons, but their intention of creating such a commotion is to stonewall Iran’s progress and damage Iran’s reputation among Muslim countries,” Mr.[Ali] Larijani,, a former chief nuclear negotiator, was quoted as saying.  

Mr. Larijani, a philosopher and politician, is one of the two representatives of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to the Iranian Security Council,  In his post as secretary he effectively functioned as the top negotiator on issues of national security, including Iran's nuclear program.

Well, perhaps we in the West are interested in stonewalling Iran’s progress and damaging its reputation. We have been at it for 60 years.  The Iran-Pakistan Pipeline controversy shows that we still are, I’m saddened to say.  See, e.g., my March 6, 2012, post in The Newspaper Spoon.

More important, “Israeli officials” are quoted by the Times as urging a “credible military option,” which seems merely being to drop a few bombs on Iran, as Israel did on Syria, with no adverse consequence except, er, a war with Hezbollah and bombs raining down on Israel’s population (and, by the way, substantial harm to Lebanon, but who cares?).

It seems to me that the burden on the Bomb-Dropper advocate is to detail the worst-case consequences of the dropping.  The silence on that subject drowns out all other comment.

Saddam Hussein thought that he could win a quick victory over Iran when he invaded in 1980.  Iran was in confusion after the overthrow of the Sash.  The war  lasted eight years, cost half-a-million dead and many more wounded, wrecked both countries’ economy, and did not result in the hoped-for border changes.

Images of the Iraq-Iran War:

Bushco thought that a War with Iraq would be a “walk in the park"; that “Shock and Awe”  -- dropping more than a few bombs -- would quickly bring the enemy to its knees. Our present national debt and the occupants of Walter Reed Hospital are a continuing tribute to that folly.  See the February 5, 2012, post in The Newspaper Spoon.

President Obama knows some of the consequences of Bombing Iran.  I’m sure his intelligence services  and the Israeli counterparts have detailed worst-case consequences.  

Before the Bombs drop, those consequences and the consequences of “allowing" Iran to get the Bomb must be made public so the American public, the Israeli public, and the Western, Azerbaijani, Russian, Chinese, Afghan, Pakistani publics can know, too.  Dropping Bombs is now a World concern, not just a concern of one or three national interests.  Wouldn’t the Kazakhs be affected?  Of course they would.  The Brazilians too?  Show my how they wouldn’t.

”We have a mighty country and a strong army,” Mr.[Benjamin] Netanyahu said after he returned Wednesday. “We have many friends who stand by our side and who will stand by our side at all times.”

Show me the consequences," I say, "Then perhaps I'll stand with you."

So say I.  How say you?


For pictures, maps, Turkish oil wrestling, and Kazakh horse wrestling . . .

Kazakhstan and Brazil produce oil; a jump in oil prices -- the lest significant and most certain result of Bombing Iran -- would benefit oil-producing entities in both countries and might even benefit their publics, at our expense.

Kazakhstan has architecture, I am surprised to say, that makes Honolulu look dumpy.

East-Azerbaijan is one of Iran's main industrial provinces.  It is made up of Azerbaijani who have relatives in Azerbaijan, right next door. Azerbaijani are Turkic people who have relatives in ATurkey, right next door. Iraq, our friend, is doing business wish East-Azerbaijan.

 Turkey is  NATO member, and is also the leading member of the Turkic Council, composed of representative of four Turkic speaking people, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.  

 Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to join soon.

Not folks to mess with.

Turkish oil wrestling 2012:

Kazakh horse wrestling:

[But more on these later . . . .]

World, I hardly know ye.