Shall the South (Yemen) ceceede?

The Jamestown Foundation has issued a report on South Yemen's secessionist movement.  http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/docid/4db7b7362.html

The Foundation, which bills itself as conservative think tank, presents a balanced and, I think, nonpolitical report.

The report nots a bunch of interesting facts, such as:

-- the South's history of communism and socialism has lead to the relative equality of women, unmatched in the north;

--the South is predominantly Sunni (but not the Saudi brand); the North, predominantly an offshoot of Shia (and presumably different from the same brand Shia  that occupies Western Saudi Arabia, where the oil is, and the northern part of Yemen, where the Saudis are attempting a genocidal war against a Shia minority);

-- there are long historical reasons and reasons of geography why the north and south can't live together;

-- the Foundation's conclusion is that Yemen cannot afford to divide, and the South's grievances must be addressed in a new government.

My own belief is that the transition organized by the Oil Dictators would keep the present government in power and the South should continue to push for its own government.  Lots of Southerners seem to agree.

Here are pics of Southern cities mentioned in the report:

Aden:

Mukulla:

al-Habilayn

The first two cities remind me of Oahu; the last, of Raymondville, in South Texas.  I like South Yemen; I will it well.

Suckers in Yemen

BBC News today reports what every news article I have read on Yemen says:  President Saleh has played us for suckers: he reports significant Al Qaeda activity; he claims only he can control it; he asks for and gets millions of dollars from us to "fight" Al Qaeda; he uses some of the money to pay off various tribesmen and  islamists who would otherwise fight him; Al Qaeda continues unmolested, but hasn't much luck, since Yemeni are interested in Yemen and qat, not in foreign wars.  I do not mean to say that there aren't men dangerous to the United States in Yemen; I mean to say we ain't gettin' them.

Meanwhile, we attack "suspected" Al Qaeda sites with missiles, not having direct information on whom we have killed, but arousing anger toward us.

If we had put the money into development, which Yemen desperately needs (proven oil reserves run out in a few years), it probably wouldn't have helped much (nor hurt much) because Saleh would have misused the money.

We should be supporting the demonstrators and not the Gulf Oil Dictators, to oust Mr. Saleh:  most any successor would be preferred to him, and we might regain some credibility.

We are making similar mistakes in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  The New York Times said on Wednesday that Pakistan is now openly courting China as its patron, to replace the United State. Reuters reported on the 27th that President Kazai is claiming hat Pakistan wants him to dump the US in favor of a long-standing security relationship with China.

President Obama has an impossible task, which he handles as well as it can be handled:  the gigantic intelligence establishment and even larger military establishment are very nearly ungovernable and are run by folks used to doing things a certain, pretty inefficient and ineffective way.  I'm looking forward to the president's reelection, when he may be able o make a dent in the establishments.  Perhaps with four more years of Obama and eight of Ms. Clinton we can have a democracy again.

The BBC article  quotes tribesmen from Marib, located here:

Here are some protesting rebels, though not in Marib:

Foreigners, it is said, can only travel in Marib with an armed military escort.

Some images of Marib:

For history buffs, this, from Wilipedia:

Timeline of Yemen history

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

• 30th-25th century BC Ancient Arab tribes move North and South. Qahtan and A'ad settle South Arabia. The Akkadians and Amalek settle the North.
• 23rd century BC - According to some legends, the Arabs of the South unite under the leadership of Qahtan.
• 21st century BC to the East of Qahtan A'ad settles Oman.
• 20th century BC the Qahtanis began building simple earth dams and canals in the Marib area in the Sayhad desert, this area will be the nucleus of the forthcoming Sabean Dam of Marib.
• 19th century BC Ismail was found by the Qahtani tribe of Jurhum. They adopt him and of the lineage of Ismail (40 generations later Adnan will be the new lineage of the Adnani tribes that will branch out of Qahtan)
• 16th century BC the Qahtanis began to move to the Tihama coasts and the lowlands. A tradeline began to flourish along the red Sea Tihama coasts. During this period the Qahtanis began to settle East Africa in small trading colonies in neighboring East Africa.
• 12th century BC an order of High Priests who are referred to as the Mukkaribs of the "Sabeans" will rule South Arabia and some parts of East Africa.
• 11th century BC the reign of the legendary Queen Bilqis mentioned in the Bible/Quran.
• 9the century BC the Qahtanis began using a Variant of the Phoenician script, this will lead to the recording of the South Arabian history, from this point on.
• 8th century BC Ma'een kingdom builds its capital in Baraqish.
• 8th century BC the Sabeans build their capital on the edge of the mountains regions in Sirwah.
• 8th century BC the Qatabanians rise as Sabean vassals in central and east Yemen.
• 8th century BC Hadhramout / Hadhramawt rise as Sabean vassal kingdom in eastern Yemen.
• 8th century BC Awsan appears as independent nation in a region that will partly controlled by the Qatabanians.
• 719BC The temple of Marib is finished.
• 718BC War between Ma'een and the Sabeans.
• 716BC After securing their borders with Ma'een the Sabeans moved their capital to the more accessible Marib.
• 715BC The Sabeans control the trade line and started recording diplomatic relationships with Assyria.
• 715 BC Sumhu`alay Yanuf and his son Yatha`amar Bayyin complete building the Marib Dam.
• 700BC the Qatabanians build Timna and rebel against the authority of Saba
• 675BC Kariba-il Watar defeats the rebellion and brings all of South Arabia under the Sabean rule.
• 6th century BC Saba reaches its height of power and extends its hegemony across the Red sea establishing the Dam't Kingdom, this will be the nucleus of the Semitic culture of East Africa. Although its not the first attempt of the Qahtanis to expand their rule to the African coast.
• 5th century BC the Dam of Marib breaks, Saba suffers from drought and rebellions.
• 5th century BC the Ma'een kingdom allied with the Qatabanians and Hadramites rebel against Saba and gain their independence.
• End of the 5th century BC Ma'een establishes itself as the Dominat kingdom in the North of Yemen extending its authority on the Northern red sea coasts and establishes military/trading colonies as far as Sinai.
• 370BC Qahtani tribes attack the Persians out of Musqat in the Eastern tip of the Arabian peninsula. From that time on Qahtanis replaced the Ancient Arabs 'Ad in Oman.
• 110BC Himyar rises against Qataban.
• 1century BC Ma'een declines gradually mainly due to the Roman control of the new sea trade routes.
• 1st century BC Himyar starts expanding on the expense of the war-torn kingdom of Saba.
• 100BC the remains of the Qhatani Jurhum tribe of Hijaz and Nejd integrate their lineage under Nizar bin Ma'ad bin Adnan. From this point on they become the Adnanis.
• 25BC The Romans encouraged by the civil war in South Arabia attempt to invade the region, but fail to survive the Arabian desert.
• 25BC Sabean civil war, Himyar closes in on Saba and takes over most of the Sabean central highlands, red sea coasts territory. Saba breaks into two smaller states in the northern highlands and the desert region around the capital Marib.
• 1st century AD the kingdom of Aksum dominates East Africa and takesover the Sabean trading/military colonies.
• In the 1st century BC Himyar allied itself with most of the Qahatni tribes of the lowlands and central highlands, annexing most of Saba and Southern Qataban, but Hadhramout repels them.
• 1st century AD the Kahlan tribes remain as the only tribes still loyal to the Sabean state at Marib, Kahlan tribes cornered to the area between Sana'a and Marib in the North of Yemen.
• 2nd century AD Jews settle Yemen.
• 200 AD Himyar captures most of Qataban.
• 200 AD Himyar annexes the Sabean state of Marib.
• 200 AD after the loss of Marib Saba Kahlans septs Azd , Hamdan , Lakhm , Tai headed north except for the Hashid and Bakil tribes of Hamdan of Gurat Saba and Kindah in the ramlah desert.
• 211 AD Hadhramout allies itself with Qataban and Aksum attacking Himyar from the West and the east.
• 217 AD while the Himyarites are fighting the Hadhramout/Qataban alliance in the east, the Aksumites capture the Himyarite capital Zafar, .
• 221 AD Hadhramout annexes Qataban and reaches its height of power.
• 222 AD the Aksumites attempt to capture Hadhramout from the coast.
• 225 AD during the reign of Sha`irum Awtar the Himyarites/Sabeans attack the Kingdom of Hadhramout from the East and capture their capital.
• 227 AD the Gurat Sabeans and Himyar ally themselves against the Aksumites and retake Zafar. The Aksumites lose all their territories in South Arabia except for Tihama.
• 229 AD Himyar recaptures Southern Tihama and controls the Major East African ports across from Muza'a. The Aksumites keep the Northern strip of Tihama.
• 229 AD The Kahlani Imran bin Azd branch expel the Persians from Oman.
• 231 AD The Kahlani Jifna bin Azd branch settles Syria and Lakhm settles Mesopotamia.
• 280 AD Himyar annexes the last Sabean enclave to its Kingdom.
• 300 AD Himyar annexes Hadhramout expanding its borders to Dhofar Oman. to the East of their borders the Azd bin Imran (Azd Uman).
• 320 AD Himyar annexes Suqatra.
• 325 AD From AL Ramlah in Yemen Shiekh of Kindah Malikum makes alliances with Adnani tribes of Nejd.
• 390 AD Abu-Kariba Asad-Toban King of Himyar converts to Judaism and spreads the religion in the region.
• 425 AD Himyar appoints Akil al-Murar ibn Amr as the first Hujr of its Northern Kindite colonies.
• 480 AD Amr al-Mansur ibn Hudjr rises his status to the king (vassal to Himyar) and bring the Northern part of the Arabian peninsula under Himyarite control.
• 5th century AD Christianity spreads in Najran/Tihama strip an area still allied to the Christian Aksum kingdom.
• 5th century AD two Jews from Yathrib travel to Himyar in hopes of converting the people of Himyar into Judaism.
• 523 AD King Dhu Nawas converts to Judaism, he begins a campaign to convert the Himyarites into Judaism. Himyarites convert in big numbers except in Najran.
• 525 AD At this time Himyar included all the Arabian peninsula (via Kinda) and he was angered by the Najrani chief refusal to leave Christianity. Dhu Nawas took Najran and massacred 20,000 Najrani Christians.
• 525 The Christian Aksumites defeat Dhu Nawas and annex Himyar, starting a period of persecution against the Yemenite Jews. Third of the population of Yemenite Jews is exiled to Aksum.
• 570 - The Dam of Marib broke for the third and final time, triggering another migration of Yemeni tribes. The Qur'an itself refers to the collapse of the Marib Dam as a punishment on the Sabaeans for their ungratefulness to God.
• 570 - Under Khosrau I, Persian forces expel the Aksumites with the help of Dhu Yazin. Persians later assassinate Dhu Yazin and try to establish their rule over all Yemen. But they fail and a number of autonomous kingdoms are established.
• 630 - Islamic Caliphate expands into Yemen, which becomes one of its provinces.
• 897 - Yemen separates from the Abbasid caliphate and the Zaidi dynasty rules Yemen. First from Sada, then from Sana'a.
• 1173 - Yemen falls under the influence of the Egyptian Ayyubid.
• 1229 - The Rasuliden dynasty rules Yemen until 1453.
• 1517 - Ottomans absorb part of Yemen into their empire, mainly Aden and Lahij. Sana'a and the rest of Yemen continued to be ruled by the Zaidi dyasty.
• 1635 - The Ottomans are expelled from Yemen.
• 1839 - Aden comes under British rule and serves as a major refuelling port when the Suez Canal opens in 1869.
• 1872 - Ottomans occupy the north of Yemen, but later face revolt.
• 1918 - Ottoman empire dissolves, North Yemen gains independence and is ruled by Imam Yahya.
• 1948 - Yahya assassinated, but his son Ahmad beats off opponents of feudal rule and succeeds his father.
• 1962 - Imam Ahmad dies, succeeded by his son but army officers seize power, set up the Yemen Arab Republic (YAR), sparking civil war between royalists supported by Saudi Arabia and republicans backed by Egypt.
• 1963 - Commenced the revolution against the British colonialism, South Yemen
• 1968 - Total independence of Southern Yemen.
• 1990 - Yemeni unification.
• 1994 - Civil war in Yemen
• 2004 - Sa'dah insurgency