Thursday, June 26, 2014

Towward a united Kursistan

The Kurds were the only consistent friends of the US during the long Iraq War.  The US owes them something, and that something is oil-rich Kirkuk, which they now occupy.

The Iraqi constitution provides that Kirkuk should belong to whomever wins a plebiscite in that City, and Kurds would surely win.  So the Central Government has refused to hold the plebiscite and has held on to Kirkuk until now.

Many Kurds live in Turkey and Iran.  Many want  the independent nation of Kurdistan promised by the 1920 Treat of Sèvres, at the conclusion of WWI.  Britain and France broke the Treaty  and carved Kurdistan into subordinate three parts.

Kurds have as long  history, as long as any people on earth.  They remember.

Kerry, do the right thing.  Let Turkey and Iran, both with big Kurdish populations, become friends of our friends, the Kurds.

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From the New York Times

Kerry Implores Kurdish Leader to Join a Government and Not Break Away
By MICHAEL R. GORDONJUNE 24, 2014
ERBIL, Iraq — Secretary of State John Kerry urged the president of Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region on Tuesday not to seek his own state and instead help form a government in Baghdad.

“I am going to bring up the elephant in the room,” Mr. Kerry told the president, Masoud Barzani, who serves as the leader of the Iraqi Kurds, a minority who have long sought independence. “This moment requires statesmanship.”

Mr. Kerry’s statements, shared by a senior State Department official who attended the meeting, were prompted by recent comments by Mr. Barzani in an interview with CNN about what he called the need for Kurdish self-determination.
Mr. Barzani neither withdrew those comments nor said that he would take concrete steps to pursue self-determination during his meeting with Mr. Kerry, who traveled to Iraq on Monday as part of an emergency effort to help deal with a growing Sunni insurgency threatening to partition the country.

But Mr. Barzani made no secret of his disdain for Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, a Shiite. Mr. Barzani also bluntly expressed his sense that the gains by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the Sunni extremist group known as ISIS, had changed the political landscape.
Photo


Secretary of State John Kerry and Masoud Barzani, the president of Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region, on Tuesday in Erbil, Iraq. 
Credit
Pool photo by Brendan Smialowski
“We are facing a new reality and a new Iraq,” Mr. Barzani said at the start of his meeting with Mr. Kerry.
Mr. Kerry’s trip to the Kurdish regional capital, Erbil, was his first as secretary of state. He met with Mr. Barzani after meetings in Baghdad on Monday with Mr. Maliki and rival Shiite and Sunni politicians. (The last secretary of state to visit Erbil was Condoleezza Rice, in 2006, at the height of the American-led Iraq occupation.)
After ISIS members took over the northern city of Mosul two weeks ago and began to move south, Kurdish security forces responded by seizing Kirkuk, a city in an oil-rich region that has long been divided between Arabs and Kurds.
The Kurds’ expansion has put them in a position to demand more autonomy in political talks over Iraq’s future. But it might also complicate the effort to cobble together a new Iraqi government, particularly one that does not include Mr. Maliki, long accused of autocratic tendencies by Iraqi politicians.
American officials have made clear privately that they would support the selection of a new prime minister if Mr. Maliki’s rivals would unite behind an alternative. But it is uncertain whether Sunni and Kurdish political parties can find enough common ground in forming a new government now that the Kurdish militia, known as the pesh merga, has taken control of Kirkuk.

“Ousting Maliki will require the cooperation of all the other blocs,” said Ramzy Mardini, an expert on Iraq and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, an independent research organization based in Washington.

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How Kurdistan might look under the Treaty of Sèvres:




US helps China's tarde ambitions,alas!

If you want to know how the US-Israel isolationist policy toward Iran aids China's trade ambitions, read this article.

Perhaps developments in Iraq will bring about a modification of US' draconian policies toward Iran.  Israel will not change until it makes peace with Palestinians.

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The development of Gwadar Port could provide some relief to the under-developed Balochistan. PHOTO: FILE
Published: June 23, 2014

ISLAMABAD: 
Over the years, there have been much more stress on connecting regional countries through road, rail and pipelines in order to defeat the threat of global economic recession. European countries followed this model by laying a gas pipeline from Russia to meet their energy needs and support the economy despite US pressure. 
In the same way, the US wants to link Asian countries including Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India through a gas pipeline and power transmission lines originating from Turkmenistan. This runs contrary to the Gwadar Port plan that will connect Pakistan to regional states in a way that does not suit US and Indian interests. 
Gwadar Port, situated in Balochistan, will create a nexus between Pakistan, Iran, China and Central Asian States that will generate billions of dollars in revenues. 
Earlier, the US played a key role during Pervez Musharraf’s government in handing over the development of Gwadar Port to the Port Authority of Singapore (PAS), denying China a chance to run a warm water, deep-sea port on the Arabian Sea just opposite the Gulf of Oman, an important route for oil tankers going from the Gulf to Japan and western countries. 
The port can serve as a gateway to the Strait of Hormuz and can compete with UAE ports by improving existing links to the Caspian region and providing a better trade route to the landlocked region. 
According to Arthur D Little, the main consulting firm for Gwadar’s development, the port is expected to generate billions of dollars in revenues and create at least two million jobs. 
The handover of port operations to PAS did not only hold back planned multi-billion-dollar investments by China, but PAS also failed to make the port operational, causing a loss of billions of dollars in port and cargo handling charges as well as freight on import and export of goods. 
Later, the control of Gwadar Port was given to China and an agreement was signed with China Overseas Ports Holding Company on May 16, 2013 to transfer operational rights from PAS. 
Energy projects 
After taking over, China decided to revive its investment plan and make massive capital injection into expansion of the port and energy projects. 
Under the Early Harvest Programme, China will pump $50 billion up to 2017 into a host of projects including coal, solar and wind energy units. 
An investment of $35 billion is anticipated in energy schemes, which will generate 23,000 megawatts. Lahore-Karachi Motorway, expansion of Gwadar Port and integrated infrastructure development in Gwadar will bring further investment of $11 billion. 
The development of Gwadar Port could provide some relief to the under-developed Balochistan, where the ranks of unemployed are increasing in the absence of infrastructure development, sparking unrest in the region. 
Balochistan is the first major gas producing province, but despite that it is a deprived region where poverty runs high and several areas are denied access to gas. 
Many countries are eying the province, which is rich in oil, gas, copper and gold reserves and has an important geopolitical position. Of the planned Chinese investment, Balochistan has a share of 38%, aimed at generating economic activities including infrastructure development, creating jobs for the locals and bringing an end to anti-state activities. 
For importers, the Gwadar Port will help save millions of dollars in demurrage cost. At present, oil suppliers and other companies have to pay hefty demurrage charges to shipping companies as ships have to wait for several days before getting a berth due to port congestion. 
Iranian investment 
After the Chinese came to Gwadar, Iran unveiled plans to set up the world’s largest oil refinery with capacity of 400,000 barrels per day at a cost of $8 billion. It also expressed interest in establishing power plants at the port. 
However, the US pressure against the Iran-Pakistan pipeline stalled the refinery project, which could have met not only Pakistan’s oil needs, but also provided the surplus for export to China. 
According to officials, China meets 50% of its oil demand from the Middle East, from where the supply line to China travels over 10,000 km through the Dubai-Shanghai-Urumqi route.
On the contrary, the crude oil processed and refined at the Gwadar oil refinery can be exported to China through the shortest possible route – Dubai-Gwadar-Urumqi – spanning about 3,600 km. For this, an oil pipeline has been proposed through the energy corridor up to western China via Karakoram Highway and Khunjrab Bypass. 
As part of the Pak-China Economic Corridor that will turn Pakistan into a hub of regional cooperation, the Gwadar Port will be connected through road, rail and fibre links to China to enhance trade between the two countries. Oil and gas pipelines are also part of the corridor over the long run, which will boost economic activities in Balochistan, officials say. 
So far, work on the port has been slow because of poor condition of roads. This underlines the need for the government to lay railway tracks from Gwadar to other ports of the country, which will save freight and encourage importers to bring cargoes through Gwadar. 
Published in The Express Tribune, June 23rd, 2014.
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Monday, June 16, 2014

Iran and the US cooperation in Iraq: hope for the future?


The Islamist State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) now controls parts of Iraq that were already out of Baghdad's control so their advance, so far, doesn't mean much, except to the people who are dead or now subject to the Saudi Wahhabis-style of Islam, the mot fanatical of all.

For news about how developments are affecting Kurds, see Forbes, Rudaw, and The Huffington Post.  The news is schetchy and grim, so far.

Iran will not allow oil-rich Basra, where many Shiites live, to fall into Sunni Jihadist hands.  I don't know how strongly Iran feels about Baghdad.

Overall, except for the human suffering -- not a minor "except" -- events are developing in ways that are good for the United States, Western Europe, and Pakistan, and are unfavorable to China.  And there is finally a Bad Guy in Syria that the West can oppose, on the ground that ISIS is worse even than Assad.

 Meanwhile, Netanyahuists chew their fingernails to the bone and rational Israelis cross their fingers in hope of avoiding War with Iran.  Watch out for the cornered creature: he's dangerous.

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Deutsche WelleDaily update ⋅ June 16, 2014IRAQ

US Secretary of State won't rule out cooperation with Iran in Iraq crisis 
US Secretary of State John Kerry will not rule out cooperation with Iran against Islamist militants in Iraq. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has called on Shiite-led Baghdad to form a national unity government with Sunnis.
In an interview with Yahoo News on Monday, Secretary of State Kerry said that he "wouldn't rule out anything that would be constructive" to stop the rapid advance of the Islamist State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), including military cooperation with Iran. 
Kerry's comments come after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also expressed openness to cooperating with Washington in Iraq. Rouhani told a news conference on Saturday that "we can think about it, if we see America starts confronting the terrorist groups in Iraq and elsewhere." 
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite-led government is closely allied with both Iran and the US. Cooperation between Washington and Tehran in Iraq would signal a major thaw in their otherwise adversarial relationship, just as they seek to conclude a final deal over the Islamic Republic's disputed nuclear program by the end of July. 
Washington broke off official diplomatic relations with Tehran in 1979, after Iranian revolutionaries stormed the American embassy and held 66 US diplomats hostage for 444 days. 
US 'deeply committed' to Iraq
n his Monday interview, Kerry went on to say that the US was "deeply committed to the integrity of Iraq as a country." The Secretary of State said that Washington may carry out drone strikes against ISIS. 
According to US broadcaster CNN, Washington deployed the amphibious transport dock ship USS Mesa Verde to the Persian Gulf on Monday. The warship reportedly had 550 marines on board. But US President Barack Obama has ruled out sending ground troops to Iraq. The Pentagon has alreadydeployed an aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, to the region.
ISIS militants reportedly captured Tal Afar on Monday. The northern city, located 548 kilometers (340 miles) northwest of Baghdad and 70 kilometers west of Mosul, has a predominantly ethnic Turkmen population of 200,000. 
On Friday, Kerry said that President Obama would take "timely decisions" about how to address the advance of ISIS, an al Qaeda splinter group. 
Saudis call for Iraqi unity 
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has called on Iraq's Shiite-led government to reach out to the country's minority Sunni community. Riyadh said that Baghdad should form a national unity government as quickly as possible. 
The Saudis accused Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki of triggering the current crisis by pursuing "sectarian and exclusionary" policies. Iraq's Sunnis have accused al-Maliki of using counterterrorism as pretense to discriminate against and oppress their minority community. 
Reports from the region have suggested that some Sunni communities in Iraq are welcoming ISIS advances, viewing the group as a possible defender against the Shiite-led central government in Baghdad.
slk/jm (AP, AFP, dpa, Reuters)