United States, Russia, working together in Syria, so far

Here is a rational, objective view of the Russian and United States success an joint objectives in Syria.

In short, both want free, fair elections.  Agreement ends there.

Two of the United States' allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, want the outcome to be a  repressiveWahhabist government or at least one supposed by Salafi Jihadists; another United States' ally, Qatar, supports the Muslim Brotherhood (also supported by Turkey) but Qatar's primary objective is an oil pipeline through Syria that can deliverer it's natural gas from the Pas field to Europe.

Iran wants the election of  a government favorable to it --as the Assad regime is -- and one which will allow the already-planned oil pipeline from its interest in the Pars Field to Europe.

Russia's interest is negative;  it does not want the Qatar pipeline to be built because it's natural gas to Europewould compete with its own sales to europe; and it does not want a Muslim jihadist government in Syria -- it has already too many Jihadists in Russian republics   as it is.  The Assad regime is acceptable to Russia and Russia is no weed to Assad's remaining in power.

The Kurdish objectives are straight-forward easy to state difficult to obtain.  Kurds living in Iraq, Turkey,  Syria, and Iran were promised an independent Kurdistan after the defeat of the Ottoman Empire by the Great Powers in World War I.  With no advance warning Kurds were arbitrarily assigned to Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria by Great Britain and France. See Kurdistan in Seven Maps:

Kurds were badly treated by host countries except Iran. Kurds want an independent Kurdistan that includes Kurds in Iraq, Syria, and Turkey.  Turkey violently and unwisely objets.  And now, because of the battlefield success of Syrian Kurds in northern Syria and the Peshmerga in Iraq, where they re helped by he United State, they want the nation to include access to the Mediterranean Sea.

The United States has no stated territorial objectives and none is apparent.  It will want to assist the oil interests in the United States and Great Britain but those interests are not apparently at stake in Syria.  The United States' stated objective is to defeat  the Islamic State and other Jihadists in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan, who carry out attacks on the United States and the European Union (and also in Pakistan).  I think the United States wants to keep a military presence in Afghanistan and in Iraq or Syria, but it has stated no such objective.

THE PULSE OF THE MIDDLE EAST

WEEK IN REVIEW

Men store bags of flour unloaded from a Red Crescent aid convoy in the rebel-held besieged town of 0, in the eastern Damascus suburb of Ghouta, March 7, 2016. The cessation in hostilities in Syria has produced the first significant flow of humanitarian assistance in several years. (photo by REUTERS/Bassam Khabieh)

Kerry notes 'beneficial reduction' in Syrian violence

United States, Russia on right course in Syria

March 27, 2016

On March 27, the cessation of hostilities in Syria will have held for one month. Yes, there have been violations, but the agreement has held. Given where we were, and where we are, we might put the present state of affairs in the category of a small miracle, a breakthrough for US-Russian leadership and cooperation and, hopefully, a turning point for the Syrian people.

US Secretary of State John Kerry said in Moscow on March 24, “There has been a fragile but nevertheless beneficial reduction in violence — some say as much as 85-90% — in Syria. It’s also true that the cessation in hostilities has produced the first significant flow of humanitarian assistance to people, some whom haven’t seen that assistance in several years. But we both know that more needs to be done in terms of both a reduction of violence and the flow of humanitarian aid.”

There is of course much more to be done, and if the cessation of hostilities continues to hold and expand, it will be the result of a deep and impactful partnership between Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Kerry said March 24 that the United States and Russia have agreed to press for expanded humanitarian assistance, the release of detainees and an acceleration of the political process leading to a transition government, a new constitution and elections. The same day, UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura said that both the Syrian government and the opposition delegations had taken the first round of negotiations “very seriously.” Talks are expected to resume in April.

And let’s add a bit more good news: The Islamic State (IS) is losing ground in Syria and Iraq. IHS/Jane’s reported March 15 that IS has lost 22% of its territory in both countries, mostly in Syria, since January 2015, a trend that accelerated with the Russian military intervention on behalf of the Syrian government in September. US Special Operations Forces killed top IS financier Abd al-Rahman Mustafa al-Qaduli last week, and as this column goes to press, Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air power, are poised to retake Palmyra from the terrorist group.

As IS loses ground in Syria and Iraq, its fighters are already seeking new territories, especially in Libya, and new targets, including in Europe, as evidenced by the deadly terrorist attacks in Brussels on March 22, which claimed 31 lives.

Maxim Suchkov wrote, “Putin now holds an important position for the shaping of a political transition in Syria. Russia acquired the air base in Khmeimim [or Hmaimim], which it did not have before. Its geopolitical standing is secured as a power broker in the Middle East, while its weapons are in great demand across the region. The global outreach is incredibly important as well. Some would even argue it was central to the idea of the operation from the very beginning. In addition, Russia showcased its military might, sending signals to those who might have been tempted to put it to the test. Russia also excelled on the public relations side of the art of modern war. Detailed daily reports from the Defense Ministry, accompanied by high-definition maps and video footage, prevented opponents from manipulating its campaign results in the media. Even if Moscow doesn’t save [Bashar al-] Assad’s presidency, his departure will be a negotiated event, not forced, an important element for Putin personally and for Russia’s vision of its role in contemporary international affairs.”

Ali Hashem, speaking with official Syrian and Iranian sources, confirmed that “when Russia decided it was time to withdraw the major part of its forces from Syria, the announcement, on March 14, came as no surprise to its allies in the Syrian civil war. The Syrian government, Iran and Hezbollah had been informed in advance.”

This column appreciates the complexity and fragility of the Syrian peace process, and the long game against IS and al-Qaeda, but we admit to being cautious optimists. The Obama administration is on the right track in Syria, with admittedly a long way to go. In our very first column, in December 2012, we identified the role of Russia as one of “four trends that might signal if and when there is an endgame in Syria — and what that endgame would be.” The Russian trend is indeed shaping the Syrian endgame, and the United States is right to work with it. Russia’s interests in Syria are not a perfect match for the United States, but neither are the interests of America’s traditional allies in the region. While some may understandably second-guess Russian intentions, and rightly criticize its at times indiscriminate bombing campaign in support of Syrian government forces, as this column has done, it might also be useful to create a scorecard or tally comparing Russia’s record with those of other regional powers in both seeking a peaceful end to the conflict and undertaking direct attacks on IS and Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria. Our back-of-the-envelope calculation is the Russian score on these counts would probably fare well compared to US regional allies. The attacks in Brussels last week reveal the stakes in Syria are linked to a struggle against IS, al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups. In Syria, as in the broader international battle against terrorism, the United States and Europe are well-served by collaboration, rather than confrontation, with Russia.

Barzani promises crackdown on corruption

Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, told Amberin Zaman in an exclusive interview for Al-Monitor that the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD) are “exactly one and the same thing,” and that the United States turns a “blind eye” because of the priority to fight IS.

In regard to the referendum on independence for the Kurdistan Region, Barzani said “with utter conviction that, barring circumstances beyond our control, that yes, we are trying to do it this year. … I think it will be before October.” He said that the wording of the referendum question, or questions, are still being worked out, and that “we are talking to Baghdad, we will talk to Iran at the same time that we talk to Turkey. We want to do it [transition to independence] in a peaceful and balanced way.”

Barzani acknowledged popular discontent with a lack of transparency in Kurdistan Regional Government energy deals and promised “to fight corruption and to fight those people who exploited their government position for oil contracts, sales of agricultural land and things like that. Whoever will be responsible from the Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Peshmerga, prime minister, any minister, any leader of the party, any security official — they all must be held responsible for what they have done.”

Turkey; a history of mistreating Kurds; the chickens come home to roost

BRUSSELS — Turkey surprised European Union leaders on Monday by hitting them with a new set of demands if it is to help stem the flow of refugees from Syria and Iraq and other migrants seeking to enter Europe.   The New York Times, March 7, 2016

Two items in the Times article  are striking: Turkey's renewed demand for membership in the European Union; and Turkey's fear of the Kurds.

From the Times article:

Turkey now is going to raise the costs for Europe,” [Fredrik Erixon, the director of the European Center for International Political Economy]  added, “and to such an extent that Europe may not be able to oppose Turkish goals in the region, including how to deal with Syria and the Kurds.”

A chilling thought, if you support Syrian and Turkish Kurds.

 Turkey is fighting Islamic extremists across its border with Syria as part of an international coalition that includes the United States, and it is confronting Kurdish militias that the Turks say are also a terrorist threat.

There is no evidence that Turkey is now fighting Islamist Extremists  in Syria.  See, e.g., Prospects for a Turkish Incursion into Syria, 9 Feb 2016;  Turkey v Syria's Kurds v Islamic State - BBC News, 19 Feb 2016.

The main Kurdish militant group in Syria is the Yekîneyên Parastina Gel (YG), supported by the United States and Russia and opposed by Turkey.

The YPG is related to the main armed service of the Kurdish Supreme Committee, the government of Syrian Kurdistan.  YPG considers itself a democratic people's army and conducts internal elections as a method of appointing officers.  Wikipedia, People's Protection Units

The Turks have lobbied hard to get the European Union and the United States to declare the YPG  a terrorist organization.  Instead, the United States and Russia are supporting the YPG, perhaps because it is the most effective fighting group against the Islamic State.

It is possible that the Turkey's renewed demands for membership in the European Union at this time is a loss leader, a demand that Turkey is willing to give up in return for a declaration that the YPG is a terrorist group.

Turkey's real problem is that it has treated Kurds in Turkey badly ever since it gained control of many Kurds following the end of the Ottoman Empire after WWI.


Kurds were guaranteed an  independent Kurdistan in 1920, by the Treaty of Sèvres between the allied powers and the OttomanEmpire following the Empire's destruction in WWI.

Instead, England and France  divided  Kurds among Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria, where they were, in the main, treated badly.

Now, thanks to Bushco's Iraq Fiasco and thanks to Bagdad's ineptitude, Kurds in Iraq have virtual autonomy in the Kurdish areas of Iraq; and thanks to their fierce fight against the Islamic State,  they have de facto control of Kirkuk  -- a major oil producing area in the region.

But Iraq Kurdistan is landlocked.  If Syrian Kurds and their Kurdish cousins in Turkey succeed in establishing an autonomous region across the north of Syria, tIraqi Kurdistan will have a corridor to the sea and can escapeTurkish control of their oil.

That's what Turkey is fearful of, in addition to retribution; an what Kurd s most desire.

Th West should do what it can to make up for the inexcusable abrogation of the Trusty of Sèvres,  Kurds would have autonomy from Iraq to the
Medeterraian.  To call them "Islamic extremists" is merely cant and not worthy of Turkey.


Turkey's application four European Union membership has languished for years. Turkey had turned its eyes Eastward to the Turkic Council and China. There are, however,   hints that all is not smooth sailing for Turkey there, either.

For many years, Turkey has ostensibly been a candidate for European Union membership, but Mr. Erdogan’s authoritarian turn has made that seem like an ever more distant prospect.

Human rights observers reacted angrily to a comment over the weekend in which the German interior minister, Thomas de Maizière, said, “We should not be referees when it comes to human rights.”

The New York Times

Turkey Places Conditions on E.U. for Migrant Help

By JAMES KANTERMARCH 7, 2016

A razor-wire fence along the Greek-Macedonian border on Monday. About 13,000 migrants are stuck on the Greek side. Credit Dimitar Dilkoff/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

BRUSSELS — Turkey surprised European Union leaders on Monday by hitting them with a new set of demands if it is to help stem the flow of refugees from Syria and Iraq and other migrants seeking to enter Europe. 

Leaders assessed the demands at an emergency summit meeting in Brussels, where Turkey’s prime minister asked for billions of euros in new assistance, easier access to visas for Turks to go to Europe and the dramatic acceleration of talks on Turkey’s membership in the bloc, a discussion that has languished for years.

The toughening of the Turkish position underscored Ankara’s apparent attempt to win more support from Europe if it is going to be expected to protect the bloc from hundreds of thousands of new asylum seekers.

But after a long day of negotiations that stretched into the early hours of Tuesday, the European leaders had made only partial progress, with many of them still assessing the terms. Even so, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, said leaders would meet again in Brussels on March 18.

Migrants at the Greek-Macedonian border near the Greek village of Idomeni on Monday. Credit Dimitar Dilkoff/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

A proposal put forward by Turkey “is a breakthrough if it is to be realized, if it is to be implemented,” Ms. Merkel told a news conference at the end of the summit.

Ms. Merkel said that under the proposed deal, for each person resettled directly from camps in Turkey to Europe, Turkey would in exchange accept one person who does not qualify for asylum in Europe to be returned to Turkey.

The idea was “to break, if you like, the vicious circle of entering an illegal boat,” Ms. Merkel said, adding that the deal could restore “orderly migration.”

David Cameron, the British prime minister, agreed that “we do have the basis for a breakthrough, which is the possibility that in the future all migrants who arrive in Greece will be returned to Turkey.”

The Turkish demands, however, laid bare the European Union’s weakening position and signaled that the difficulties — and costs — of managing the crisis might only rise the longer it stumbled on.

Hoping to avoid a repeat of last year, when hundreds of thousands of refugees overwhelmed the authorities from Greece to Germany and beyond, European leaders were weighing whether to declare “closed” the route migrants have taken through the Balkans to Western Europe.

But such a step threatens to bottle up migrants in Greece and has sharply divided European leaders, with Ms. Merkel reluctant to burden Greece, which is trying to regain its economic footing after a six-year debt crisis.

There are 13,000 migrants stuck on the Greek border with Macedonia.

“You end up in situations like this when you have neglected to build the capacity to deal with the bigger issues of our time,” said Fredrik Erixon, the director of the European Center for International Political Economy, a research group in Brussels.

“Turkey now is going to raise the costs for Europe,” he added, “and to such an extent that Europe may not be able to oppose Turkish goals in the region, including how to deal with Syria and the Kurds.”

Turkey is fighting Islamic extremists across its border with Syria as part of an international coalition that includes the United States, and it is confronting Kurdish militias that the Turks say are also a terrorist threat.

As the meeting in Brussels got underway, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey reiterated calls for a “safe zone” in Syria where migrants could be free from the violence that has torn the country apart over the past five years.

Belgium is the latest country to suspend the rules of the Schengen accord allowing the free movement of citizens across most of Europe’s internal borders.

In a televised speech on Monday, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said the country had spent $10 billion caring for the Syrian refugees. He said the European Union had been slow to disburse the 3 billion euros (about $3.3 billion) it had already pledged to assist refugees in Turkey. “The prime minister is in Brussels right now,” Mr. Erdogan said of Mr. Davutoglu. “I hope he returns with that money.”

The additional money, amounting to about €3 billion, that Turkey requested on Monday was a precondition for curbing new migrants from crossing the Aegean Sea to reach Europe.

Mr. Davutoglu also surprised European leaders in a negotiating session that dragged into Monday morning by putting Turkey’s attempts to join the European Union — a process known as accession — on the agenda.

“Turkey is ready to work with the E.U.,” Mr. Davutoglu said Monday. “Turkey is ready to be a member of the E.U. as well.” He added, “I hope this summit, which will not focus only on irregular migration but also on the Turkish accession process to the E.U., will be a success story and a turning point in our relations.”

Migrants rushed to get firewood in a makeshift camp on the Greek-Macedonian border on Sunday. Credit Dimitar Dilkoff/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, which represents the leaders of the 28-nation European Union, included language about closing the Balkan route in a draft of a summit meeting statement, reinforcing his blunt warning last week to migrants who are seeking a better life in Europe but are not eligible for political asylum.

Ms. Merkel resisted the wording of Mr. Tusk’s statement about closing the Balkan route.

Germany also has been sharply at odds with a neighbor, Austria, after the government in Vienna restricted the flow of migrants, threatening the bloc’s system of passport-free travel.

Others would like to see European borders stay shut.

“If we bring migrants from Greece or Turkey directly into Europe, that’s an invitation to waltz,” Hungary’s right-wing prime minister, Viktor Orban, told reporters here. He added, “Borders must be closed, and direct resettlement is out of the question, at least as far as Hungary is concerned.”

The record flow of more than one million migrants to the Continent last year exposed the inadequacy of the European Union’s response to the geopolitical and humanitarian crisis caused by Syria’s civil war. More than 140,000 people have arrived in the European Union by sea so far this year.

Now much of the attention is on how to stop migrants from reaching Europe in the first place — and to distinguish Syrians and Iraqis, whose claims to asylum are generally viewed sympathetically, from those who are fleeing poverty and chaos elsewhere.

For many years, Turkey has ostensibly been a candidate for European Union membership, but Mr. Erdogan’s authoritarian turn has made that seem like an ever more distant prospect.

Human rights observers reacted angrily to a comment over the weekend in which the German interior minister, Thomas de Maizière, said, “We should not be referees when it comes to human rights.”

Melissa Eddy contributed reporting from Berlin, Palko Karasz from London, and Ceylan Yeginsu from Istanbul.

Great Powers stall Syrian peace talks

From a January 20, 2015, New York Times news article, Syria Talks Are Complicated by Competing Opposition Groups.  If you read the article, you may conclude hat the Syrian peace talks are  complicated not so much by competing groups, but by

• Turkey, which objects to Kurdish representation; 
• Saudi Arabia, which objets to any reprobation that isn't Salafist Jihadists; 
• Russia and Iran, which object to exclusion of Kurds, who are supported by Russia, Iran, a and the US; and 
• Iran, which objects to Salafist Jihadists determined to destroy Iran.

THE KURDISH DEMOCRATIC UNION PARTY

The party, known as the P.Y.D., is the main Kurdish force in Syria. Its militia controls a substantial area in the northeast and along the Turkish border. Russia wanted the group to be invited to the Geneva talks, but Turkey, which is fighting a Kurdish insurgency of its own, raised strong objections. The Saudi-backed committee also objected, saying it should be the sole opposition representative. The party’s leader, Saleh Muslim, said on Tuesday that no Syrian Kurdish officials had been invited to the Geneva talks.

 See here, and here,  for more on the obstacles to peace in Syria.  Plenty of blame to go around, and oil is at the center of it:

Russia objects to Qatar's oil going to Europe through Syria because Qatar's competition would destroy Russia's oil-based economy and Qatar wants a pipeline through Syria;

the Gulf dictators snd the US have blocked Iranian oil since Iran nationalized its oil five decades ago and old habits are hard to break even after they make no sense; they object to Iran's desire for a pipeline through Syria to deliver oil to Europe;

Russia finds Iranian oil  less objectionable than Qatar's since it would find Iran more amenable to price fixing that Qatar, it thinks.

The folks fighting on the ground are sectarian ideologues or are mercenaries beholden to one Great Power or another, except for the admirable Kurds,  who are communitarian, egalitarian, feminist and the most effective fighters in the regain.

No wonder that all except the Turks wish to arm them.

Towward a united Kursistan

The Kurds were the only consistent friends of the US during the long Iraq War.  The US owes them something, and that something is oil-rich Kirkuk, which they now occupy.

The Iraqi constitution provides that Kirkuk should belong to whomever wins a plebiscite in that City, and Kurds would surely win.  So the Central Government has refused to hold the plebiscite and has held on to Kirkuk until now.

Many Kurds live in Turkey and Iran.  Many want  the independent nation of Kurdistan promised by the 1920 Treat of Sèvres, at the conclusion of WWI.  Britain and France broke the Treaty  and carved Kurdistan into subordinate three parts.

Kurds have as long  history, as long as any people on earth.  They remember.

Kerry, do the right thing.  Let Turkey and Iran, both with big Kurdish populations, become friends of our friends, the Kurds.

d

From the New York Times

Kerry Implores Kurdish Leader to Join a Government and Not Break Away

By MICHAEL R. GORDONJUNE 24, 2014

ERBIL, Iraq — Secretary of State John Kerry urged the president of Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region on Tuesday not to seek his own state and instead help form a government in Baghdad.

“I am going to bring up the elephant in the room,” Mr. Kerry told the president, Masoud Barzani, who serves as the leader of the Iraqi Kurds, a minority who have long sought independence. “This moment requires statesmanship.”

Mr. Kerry’s statements, shared by a senior State Department official who attended the meeting, were prompted by recent comments by Mr. Barzani in an interview with CNN about what he called the need for Kurdish self-determination.

Mr. Barzani neither withdrew those comments nor said that he would take concrete steps to pursue self-determination during his meeting with Mr. Kerry, who traveled to Iraq on Monday as part of an emergency effort to help deal with a growing Sunni insurgency threatening to partition the country.

But Mr. Barzani made no secret of his disdain for Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, a Shiite. Mr. Barzani also bluntly expressed his sense that the gains by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the Sunni extremist group known as ISIS, had changed the political landscape.

Photo

Secretary of State John Kerry and Masoud Barzani, the president of Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region, on Tuesday in Erbil, Iraq. 

Credit

Pool photo by Brendan Smialowski

“We are facing a new reality and a new Iraq,” Mr. Barzani said at the start of his meeting with Mr. Kerry.

Mr. Kerry’s trip to the Kurdish regional capital, Erbil, was his first as secretary of state. He met with Mr. Barzani after meetings in Baghdad on Monday with Mr. Maliki and rival Shiite and Sunni politicians. (The last secretary of state to visit Erbil was Condoleezza Rice, in 2006, at the height of the American-led Iraq occupation.)

After ISIS members took over the northern city of Mosul two weeks ago and began to move south, Kurdish security forces responded by seizing Kirkuk, a city in an oil-rich region that has long been divided between Arabs and Kurds.

The Kurds’ expansion has put them in a position to demand more autonomy in political talks over Iraq’s future. But it might also complicate the effort to cobble together a new Iraqi government, particularly one that does not include Mr. Maliki, long accused of autocratic tendencies by Iraqi politicians.

American officials have made clear privately that they would support the selection of a new prime minister if Mr. Maliki’s rivals would unite behind an alternative. But it is uncertain whether Sunni and Kurdish political parties can find enough common ground in forming a new government now that the Kurdish militia, known as the pesh merga, has taken control of Kirkuk.

“Ousting Maliki will require the cooperation of all the other blocs,” said Ramzy Mardini, an expert on Iraq and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, an independent research organization based in Washington.

∼∼∼∼∼∼∼∼∼∼

How Kurdistan might look under the Treaty of Sèvres:

Wikipedia

Kurds-Arab Islamists clash in Syria, tension mounts between Turkey and Russia

The Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports:

Syria's Arab-led rebels seized new territory in the eastern Euphrates valley from government forces on Thursday but ran into resistance from Kurdish militia on the Turkish border in a potential new security concern for the key NATO member.

Rebel fighters captured the Euphrates town of Mayadeen in a drive up the strategic valley from the Iraqi border, bringing the largest single swathe of territory in the country under their control, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

But farther north, in the battlefield town of Ras al-Ain on the Turkish border, mainly jihadist rebel forces were in a standoff with Kurdish militia with links to Ankara's longtime foe, Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the largest such confrontation so far in the 20-month uprising.

The dispute is bring Russia and NATO into conflict  because Turkey, a NAATO member, is asking for Patriot missels to protect its borders, and Russia objects.  Tension mounts.

article AFP article is republished after the jump.

Here are three photographs and a map that accompanied the article:

Damage at a house in the Damascus district of Mazzeh 

is pictured after it was target by mortar fire 

(SANA/AFP)

Syrian women bake bread in a clay oven

 in the town of Maraat al-Numan 

in the southern Idlib province on November 21

 (AFP/File, John Cantlie)

A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in the town of

 Maraat al-Numan in Idlib province on

 November 20 (AFP/File, John Cantlie)

Kurds, Iran, and Turkey, with the Duke of Herat por nada

There is a beautiful article in the  Kurdish Globe. about Iran's shelling of eastern Iraq -- what the Iraqi Kurds call "Kurdistan."  The article also describes political movements of Kurds in Turkey and Iran.

Many people who see themselves as different from the most powerful political government of their country are the most active politically.  A half-century ago, their efforts were to attempt armed resistance, and they lost except in Cuba and Bolivia.  After the Arab Spring, new forms of resistance have spring up-- forms that Martin Luther King would approve of -- in places one might not expect.  Wisconsin for one.

Powerful national governments don't like it when minorities within their borders demand liberties.  There is a tendency for powers, now-a-days, to call resisters "terrorists."  Iran, China, Columbia, and the illegitimate governments of Syria and Yemen all do.  We do too, and so does Britain.  The Uighurs in China, the PKJA in Iran, everybody except Alawaites in Syria, evrybody in Yemen, the Shining Path folks in Columbia [am I right on this one?], are all "terrorists."  Our government goes along with those dictators and agrees to list opposition groups as "terrorists," with concomitant economic consequences.  I suppose the impetus for our doing so rests with Bushco civil service appointees in our intelligence services, who, at least in Yemen, are doing  sloppy work which hurts our country.

Here are images of the parts of "Kurdistan"  described in the article.  I didn't imagine so fruitful and prosperous a place:

Suleimaniya

We can not, I think, be forgiven everything.

Erbil

  Indistinguishable from houses built in Mililani, Oahu, 10 years ago.

 We used to have lots of cranes in Honolulu.  Indeed, the crane was our state bird, for a while.  Now they have all flown away.  Looks as if they flew to Erbil, along with lots of our money. I wish I understood international diplomacy better than I do.

 To show the close proximity to Turkey, Syria, and Iran.

_________________________________

Herat, which is next to Iran on the other side, is the richest, best-run, most honest province in Afghanistan.  It is also, sorry to say, committed to the strictest form of Sharia. Don't know if proximity is relevant.  I have read that six truckloads of cash with many more of arms were rushed from Iran to Herat when Ishmail Kahn, "the Duke of Herat" was at war with the Taliban.  

Kahn and Karzai aren't friends (he sends no tax money to the central government), so I don't suppose we can be his friend, but I surely like him better than I like Karzai in spite of draconian religion.  Here are images:

 This image is from a favored blog.  See it if you love pics.

Bomb, bomb, bomb . . .East-Azerbaijan? What to expect from War with Iran. Part 1

Acheson, that brilliant strategist and close friend of Archi­bald MacLeish, criticized advocates of “massive retaliation” in the 1950s. It would be mad, he said, to “embrace disaster in order to escape anxiety.”

• • •

Deployment of military force can bring the immediate illusion of “success” but always results in unforeseen consequences and collateral damage that complicate further the achievement of America’s main objectives. 

     Ambassadors Thomas Pickering and Luers, cited in the excellent J Street, an organization of reasonable American Jews who support  a just and lasting Israeli State.

East-Azerbaijan is an important province in north-west Iran.  When Republicans talk about War with Iran, as they do every dat on the primary campaign stump, presumably they are aware of the 4,00,000 armed patriots in  East-Azerbaijan.

The Republicans talk about War with Iran as if it would be like the War we were lead to believe Iraq War would be.  This series of blog posts explores how realistic that hope would be.

CAN WE BOMB IRAN, SMASH IT TO SMITHEREENS?

You betcha.

We can bomb anybody, anywhere in the world, and do it thoroughly.

We did this to Bagdad, . . .  

with MOAB, what we call the Mother of All Bombs, without breaking into a sweat . . .

An Atomic Bomb blast is bigger and prettier,

but chemical bombs do well enough; so who needs Atomics now-a-days? 

No Americans were injured in the fire bombing of Bagdad . . .

. . . and this young man was fortunate
to be  liberated from the Tyrant,
 Saddam Hussein.

WAS THE IRAQ WAAR A WALK IN THE PARK?

The Iraq War was billed as being "a walk in the park," "where we would be greeted with flowers as liberators", in DefenseSecretary Donald Rumsfeld's phrases.

I wouldn't describe it that way:

About 4,000 American soldiers killed . . .

about 34,000 wounded . . .

Olson Brandon, from an impressive collection of  

Iraq war images entitled

Empire Burlesque -- High Crimes and Low Comedy

 in the Bush Imperium

more than 1,000,000 Iraqis killed . . .

This estimate of Iraqi dead

is conservative.

A U. S. Marine is next to the dead body 

of a suspected insurgent during the battle for 

Fallujah, 2004. Salon.com,

  Photo byMARCO DI LAURO

1,556,156 Iraqis were wounded,  . . .

Photojournalist Ghaith Abdul-Ahad

The Guardian 14 March 20008, Baghdad;

 September 12 2004:

 Dead and critically injured Iraqi civilians

 lie in Haifa Street after US helicopters 

opened fire on targets in the area 

 3,216,107 displaced to Syria and Jordan as of 28 February 2010. . .

From a current story in the Daily Koss

From the Christian Science Monitor, displaced Iraqi school children 

attend summer school to try to catch up

And see here.

. . . and 1,900,000 still living in Iraq but without a permanent home

Grin and bear it, these guys seem to say

Some or our soldiers were welcomed . . .

Change.org, urging improved help for displaced Iraqis.

and even seen as heroic

We were not hospitable to everyone, an expected consequence of the stresses of War and a reason to avoid War if it can be avoided:

(I see these guys as heros)

GI's resting during the assault on Najaf.

Some did not like our troops very much

Najaf; August 20 2004: An Iraqi Shiite man

 loyal to the radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr

 prays in front of the door of a tomb, 

The Guardian photojournalist Ghaith Abdul-Ahad

Our opponents in Najaf.  

Resembles a friend of mine. 

 Making enemies isn't good.

Not to forget the Kurds, our staunches friends:

The Peshmerga, perhaps the finest fighting force 

outside Pastunistan.  National Geographic photo.

Kurdish girl.

Many on all sides just mourn their losses:

Empire Burlesque -- High Crimes and Low Comedy

 in the Bush Imperium

Vice President Dick Cheney, a vocal proponent of the Iraq War,  said

"every analysis said this war itself would cost about $80 billion, recovery of Baghdad, perhaps of Iraq, about $10 billion per year. We should expect as American citizens that this would cost at least $100 billion for a two-year involvement."

In fact, there were two Wars.  Afghanistan is not finished and the Iraq War  lasted six years.  The total cost to the American citizen ,in a Brown University estimate, is 3.3 Trillion Dollars.

The difference between a billion and a trillion, illustrated:

Ten thousand dollars:





One million dollars:





One hundred million dollars:





One billion dollars:





One trillion dollars:








Bushco  (my term for President George W. Bush and his Republican friends who began two wars) borrowed much of the 3.3 trillion dollars from Communist China, our former bitter enemy

while Bushco was cutting taxes on the richest of us, at a cost of 2.27 Trillion Dollars by 2010, and rising. . .

. . . resulting in the national debt that Republicans now decry.

Republicans who urge War with Iran, now demand tax cuts and reduction in the national debt.  Thomas Friedman, not noted for liberal ideology, in a  February 11, 2012, New York Times OpEd piece, urged a crushing defeat of the RepublicanParty in the November  elections, for its idiocy, in the hope that a truly Conservative Party will take its place.  Urging War with Iran with no mention of its financial and human cost nor of its unexplained and perhaps unintended consequences, is idiotic, as we shall see in future posts on this blog.

THE IRAQ WAR  WAS NOT A WALK IN THE PARK, AND NEITHER WILL BE A WAR WITH IRAN.

Neocon Paul Wolfowitz recently said that our killing Saddam Hussein caused the Arab Spring, and so was a good thing.  That retro-thinking  is a  slim reed to cling to, if there is life after death and a vengeful god.  In Greek theology, the Eumenides are the personification of vengeance.
William-Adolphe Bouguereau


         It is not known if Bushco sleep comfortably an night, or if  the Furies haunt its members. Can't imagine what goes on in the heads of million-killers.  Probably not much, I fear.



THE IRAQ WAR WAS A GREAT GIFT TO IRAN, BUT WHO KNOWS IF INTENDED?


Who ever knows what those in power intend?  Surely not I.  But Iran is a Shiite Muslim State, surrounded by a great sea of Sunni Muslims, who regard the Shia as apostate, unclean, and to be destroyed.  Bushco gave Iran a Shiite government in Iraq, replacing its bitter enemy, Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim.  Iran should give daily prayers of thanks to Bushco, but doesn't, because Iranians hate Americans so much.  Still.  Thank you very much, Dwight David Eisenhower.  See the forthcoming blog post.