The Struggle by the West, Russia, and China for economic control of Central Asia

What, you might ask, is the Western Coalition of Armies doing in Afghanistan?  Why is the coalition negotiating to keep a military presence there past 2014?

These conflicting news reports will help you understand why I think the West want a presence in Afghanistan.

The first report is from the Western-leaning New York Times:

The New York Times
November 19, 2013
Vladimir Putin Clings to the PastBy THE EDITORIAL BOARDThe former republics of the Soviet Union have been sovereign, independent countries for almost 22 years, free to develop economic and political relations with any foreign nation or trading bloc they choose. That point appears to have eluded President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who is doing everything he can to prevent these countries from developing closer ties with Europe — even threatening to cut off the gas that one country needs to get through the winter. 

“The Cold War should be over for everyone,” Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said this week. Not, it appears, for Mr. Putin. 

Next week, six former republics — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine — are scheduled to meet with leaders of the European Union in Vilnius, Lithuania, to discuss enhanced economic, political and diplomatic ties with the union. In 2004, Lithuania, along with Estonia and Latvia, became the first former Soviet republics to join the union. 

To qualify for stronger ties, the six nations will have to demonstrate progress on democratic and judicial reforms required by the European Union. That may prove difficult for some, like Ukraine, which has, so far, refused to allow its imprisoned former prime minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, to travel to Germany for medical treatment. 

Europe’s use of trade leverage to encourage democracy is constructive and reasonable. Russia’s attempts to bludgeon former vassals into continued economic dependence are not. The European Union offers something real and attractive. Russia, which wants them to join the customs union it has formed with Belarus and Kazakhstan, offers threats. 

In September, a Russian deputy prime minister warned Moldova that it might lose access to gas this winter should it strengthen links with Europe. Then it banned imports of Moldovan wine. Next came threats to expel tens of thousands of Moldovans working in Russia. Yet, far from backing down, Moldovan leaders have continued negotiations with Europe and are now working to reduce the country’s economic dependence on Russia. 

Moscow’s bullying has had more success in Armenia, which counts on Russian support in its territorial dispute with Azerbaijan, and has agreed to join the customs union. Even Lithuania, already a member of the union, has been subjected to trade harassment, presumably in retaliation for hosting next week’s Vilnius meeting. 

Similarly, Russia has threatened to slow Ukrainian imports with exacting customs inspections, although the main obstacles to stronger Ukrainian ties with the union involve domestic politics. In any case, Ukraine, which is economically robust, is perfectly entitled to choose its own course, as are the other former Soviet republics. 

In the waning years of the Soviet Union, its last president, Mikhail Gorbachev, talked optimistically about a post-Cold War Europe stretching undivided from the Atlantic to the Urals. Mr. Putin, however, seems to long for a return to the days when an iron curtain divided the Continent, darkening the horizons of the satellites and Soviet republics to the east — nations that now seek the enjoy more fully the fruits of independence.

The second if from RT, a Russia-leaning Russian national news outlet.  Both suggest competition between East and West for trade associations with Central Asian countries.  Judge for yourself how fierce the competition will become.

RT
Ukraine-EU trade deal: Business seeks delay, quarreling MP’s stall
Published time: November 13, 2013 11:51
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Activists of Ukrainian movement "For European Future" hold EU flag with the Ukraine national emblem during their rally at Independence Square in Kiev on October 30, 2013.  

Ukraine’s prospect of signing a key Euro-integration deal this month remains questionable. Its big business suggests delaying the move by at least a year, while parliament has stalled a vote that could release ex-PM Tymoshenko. 

Kiev may sign the EU Association Agreement, a free trade agreement that paves the way for eventual membership in the union, at the EU's Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29. However it faced strong resistance from Russia, which wants Ukraine to be part of the Moscow-led Customs Union along with Belarus and Kazakhstan. Ukrainians themselves are also split in their opinion over their country’s strategic course. 

The split was underlined at a meeting of leaders from Ukraine’s major industries and unions with President Viktor Yanukovich. At the closed-door session they voiced their concern that Ukraine’s battered economy is not ready to be opened up to its strong Western neighbor.  

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych “If it is possible, let’s postpone the signing [of the Association Agreement] by a year. Give us a chance to prepare more, to buy equipment. This is not only my request, it’s a request from industrialists,” Valentin Landyk, President of the Nord Group holding said at the Tuesday meeting as cited in a statement released by the president’s office. 

The business captains asked the government to take several measures, which would raise the competitiveness of the Ukrainian economy before integrating with the EU, Kommersant Ukraine business daily reports. Those included boosting domestic demand, making credit cheaper, lowering taxes and normalizing trade relation with the Customs Union members. 

Yanukovich did not comment on the proposition to delay signing of the trade deal, but ordered his government to review the concerns. Both the president and Ukraine’s ruling Party of Regions insist that Ukraine’s course for European integration is firm and that Kiev has every intention of signing the agreement. 

“I believe we have all the preconditions for a positive result [at the summit],” Foreign Minister Leonid Kozhara reiterated on Wednesday, adding that only political issues need to be settled.
The intention however saw another setback on Wednesday when the Ukrainian parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, postponed a vote on a bill, which would allow former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who is serving a prison term now, to go to Germany for treatment of back pain. The delay until Tuesday next week was caused by the failure of a working group preparing the bill to find a compromise alternative. 

The European Union considers Tymoshenko, sentenced to seven years for overstepping her authority during her term in office, a political prisoner. Releasing her is one of major conditions for Ukraine to be granted a free trade deal. 

The bill would allow a long-term transfer of Tymoshenko outside of Ukraine due to health reasons, which would constitute a de facto release. 

The ruling party accused opposition parties of derailing the work, saying they bombarded the working groups with amendments and gave them no time to review them. 

“There is a growing suspicion that you’ve been playing a show for the voters, while imagining yourselves candidates at the next presidential election, and you don’t even intend to solve the Tymoshenko issue,”Regions’ parliamentary faction leader Aleksandr Efremov lashed out. 

“You’ve been deceiving European representatives while trying to frame the Ukrainian authorities,” he added in a reference to this week’s visit of a European Parliament observer mission to review the preparation for the Vilnius summit. 

Meanwhile some opposition members are accusing Yanukovich of spinning the public opinion for an eventual failure to sign the deal. Tymoshenko said the president “has in the last weeks already been kicking the Association Agreement to death” in a statement. And opposition leader Arseny Yatsenyuk has called for an investigation over whether the president committed treason by traveling to Russia last weekend for a meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. 

"Right from the start Yanukovich did not want to sign anything with the European Union," Tymoshenko ally Yatsenyuk wrote bitterly on Twitter. "He played and outplayed even himself."

Here's a map showing the countries mentioned in the two article, except for Vietnam.

Moldavia is new to me.  Here's a map of that country, showing a portion of the country that has seceded with apparent success:

Moldavian footballer . . .

 Country-side. . .

City . . .

Village.

Moldavians speak Romanian, and French is the  most-often taught foreign language.

It interests me that Belarus and Kazakhstan are the only two countries, so far, to join with Russia in the customs union.  They are about as far apart as can be.

Kazakhstan is also a member of the Turkic Council . . .

. . . which, under Azerbaijan's leadership, is also creating a common economic, political, and ethnic union, a buffer blocking Russian and Chinese expansionist desires in Central Asia. 

Russia, the Times reports, supports Armenia against Azerbaijan in their territorial dispute.  So does Iran, even though Armenia is a Christian nation and Azerbaijan is the only country besides Iran with a Shiite majority.  Since Russia and Iran are allies in Syria it makes sense that Russia would support Armenia, though Armenia and Turkey are mortal enemies and Russia and Turkey need each other if a good outcome in Syria is to happen.

See Wikipedia for a summary of the various nations that have an interest in the customs union.

The Shanghai Cooperation organization is an economic, political, and military union of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

There are many other cooperation agreements in Central Asia, some inchoate.  Lots of interest.  Lots of activity.  Lots rests on outcomes.  The West needs a presence in Central Asia.  Afghanistan is the only chance left.