Wednesday, July 2, 2014

In geopolitical terms, Russia is winning on its borders, for now; and the Saudi have a black eye


If you want to know about the Saudi official support of SISI, read the article below, from the Economic Times, according to Wikipedia the second-most-read English-language financial journal in the world, after the Wall Street Journal..  It is published in India.

Russia is having a field day.  It wants to support Iran in Syria, what better way than to support the Shia in Iran than by supplying fighter planes to Bagdad., and with no downside to Russia.  At the same time, Russia gets in a poke at the US for the US's support of Ukraine.

Incidentally, SISI is the mortal enemy of Al Qaeda, and both seem to be the mortal enemy of the West.  Whom do you wish us to bomb, Senator Graham?

Iraq crisis: Besides Saudi Arabia, India seeks Russia’s help to secure release of abducted citizens
Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, ET Bureau 
Jun 28, 2014, 06.58AM IST 

NEW DELHI: India has sought Russia's help to secure the release of its abducted citizens in insurgency-hit Iraq, turning to its trusted old partner even as it is trying to negotiate with the militant group ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) that kidnapped the construction workers in Mosul.
The government had discussed the issue with the Russian deputy prime minister Dmitry Rogozin on his visit to Delhi last week, officials said. Simultaneously, the government is heavily relying on Saudi Arabia, which has influence in the region and within ISIS, the officials said, adding that Saudi Arabia has assured India that the kidnapped nationals are safe and receiving ration.  [Emphasis added.]



Thursday, June 26, 2014

Towward a united Kursistan

The Kurds were the only consistent friends of the US during the long Iraq War.  The US owes them something, and that something is oil-rich Kirkuk, which they now occupy.

The Iraqi constitution provides that Kirkuk should belong to whomever wins a plebiscite in that City, and Kurds would surely win.  So the Central Government has refused to hold the plebiscite and has held on to Kirkuk until now.

Many Kurds live in Turkey and Iran.  Many want  the independent nation of Kurdistan promised by the 1920 Treat of Sèvres, at the conclusion of WWI.  Britain and France broke the Treaty  and carved Kurdistan into subordinate three parts.

Kurds have as long  history, as long as any people on earth.  They remember.

Kerry, do the right thing.  Let Turkey and Iran, both with big Kurdish populations, become friends of our friends, the Kurds.

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From the New York Times

Kerry Implores Kurdish Leader to Join a Government and Not Break Away
By MICHAEL R. GORDONJUNE 24, 2014
ERBIL, Iraq — Secretary of State John Kerry urged the president of Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region on Tuesday not to seek his own state and instead help form a government in Baghdad.

“I am going to bring up the elephant in the room,” Mr. Kerry told the president, Masoud Barzani, who serves as the leader of the Iraqi Kurds, a minority who have long sought independence. “This moment requires statesmanship.”

Mr. Kerry’s statements, shared by a senior State Department official who attended the meeting, were prompted by recent comments by Mr. Barzani in an interview with CNN about what he called the need for Kurdish self-determination.
Mr. Barzani neither withdrew those comments nor said that he would take concrete steps to pursue self-determination during his meeting with Mr. Kerry, who traveled to Iraq on Monday as part of an emergency effort to help deal with a growing Sunni insurgency threatening to partition the country.

But Mr. Barzani made no secret of his disdain for Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, a Shiite. Mr. Barzani also bluntly expressed his sense that the gains by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, the Sunni extremist group known as ISIS, had changed the political landscape.
Photo


Secretary of State John Kerry and Masoud Barzani, the president of Iraq’s Kurdish autonomous region, on Tuesday in Erbil, Iraq. 
Credit
Pool photo by Brendan Smialowski
“We are facing a new reality and a new Iraq,” Mr. Barzani said at the start of his meeting with Mr. Kerry.
Mr. Kerry’s trip to the Kurdish regional capital, Erbil, was his first as secretary of state. He met with Mr. Barzani after meetings in Baghdad on Monday with Mr. Maliki and rival Shiite and Sunni politicians. (The last secretary of state to visit Erbil was Condoleezza Rice, in 2006, at the height of the American-led Iraq occupation.)
After ISIS members took over the northern city of Mosul two weeks ago and began to move south, Kurdish security forces responded by seizing Kirkuk, a city in an oil-rich region that has long been divided between Arabs and Kurds.
The Kurds’ expansion has put them in a position to demand more autonomy in political talks over Iraq’s future. But it might also complicate the effort to cobble together a new Iraqi government, particularly one that does not include Mr. Maliki, long accused of autocratic tendencies by Iraqi politicians.
American officials have made clear privately that they would support the selection of a new prime minister if Mr. Maliki’s rivals would unite behind an alternative. But it is uncertain whether Sunni and Kurdish political parties can find enough common ground in forming a new government now that the Kurdish militia, known as the pesh merga, has taken control of Kirkuk.

“Ousting Maliki will require the cooperation of all the other blocs,” said Ramzy Mardini, an expert on Iraq and a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, an independent research organization based in Washington.

∼∼∼∼∼∼∼∼∼∼

How Kurdistan might look under the Treaty of Sèvres:




US helps China's tarde ambitions,alas!

If you want to know how the US-Israel isolationist policy toward Iran aids China's trade ambitions, read this article.

Perhaps developments in Iraq will bring about a modification of US' draconian policies toward Iran.  Israel will not change until it makes peace with Palestinians.

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The development of Gwadar Port could provide some relief to the under-developed Balochistan. PHOTO: FILE
Published: June 23, 2014

ISLAMABAD: 
Over the years, there have been much more stress on connecting regional countries through road, rail and pipelines in order to defeat the threat of global economic recession. European countries followed this model by laying a gas pipeline from Russia to meet their energy needs and support the economy despite US pressure. 
In the same way, the US wants to link Asian countries including Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India through a gas pipeline and power transmission lines originating from Turkmenistan. This runs contrary to the Gwadar Port plan that will connect Pakistan to regional states in a way that does not suit US and Indian interests. 
Gwadar Port, situated in Balochistan, will create a nexus between Pakistan, Iran, China and Central Asian States that will generate billions of dollars in revenues. 
Earlier, the US played a key role during Pervez Musharraf’s government in handing over the development of Gwadar Port to the Port Authority of Singapore (PAS), denying China a chance to run a warm water, deep-sea port on the Arabian Sea just opposite the Gulf of Oman, an important route for oil tankers going from the Gulf to Japan and western countries. 
The port can serve as a gateway to the Strait of Hormuz and can compete with UAE ports by improving existing links to the Caspian region and providing a better trade route to the landlocked region. 
According to Arthur D Little, the main consulting firm for Gwadar’s development, the port is expected to generate billions of dollars in revenues and create at least two million jobs. 
The handover of port operations to PAS did not only hold back planned multi-billion-dollar investments by China, but PAS also failed to make the port operational, causing a loss of billions of dollars in port and cargo handling charges as well as freight on import and export of goods. 
Later, the control of Gwadar Port was given to China and an agreement was signed with China Overseas Ports Holding Company on May 16, 2013 to transfer operational rights from PAS. 
Energy projects 
After taking over, China decided to revive its investment plan and make massive capital injection into expansion of the port and energy projects. 
Under the Early Harvest Programme, China will pump $50 billion up to 2017 into a host of projects including coal, solar and wind energy units. 
An investment of $35 billion is anticipated in energy schemes, which will generate 23,000 megawatts. Lahore-Karachi Motorway, expansion of Gwadar Port and integrated infrastructure development in Gwadar will bring further investment of $11 billion. 
The development of Gwadar Port could provide some relief to the under-developed Balochistan, where the ranks of unemployed are increasing in the absence of infrastructure development, sparking unrest in the region. 
Balochistan is the first major gas producing province, but despite that it is a deprived region where poverty runs high and several areas are denied access to gas. 
Many countries are eying the province, which is rich in oil, gas, copper and gold reserves and has an important geopolitical position. Of the planned Chinese investment, Balochistan has a share of 38%, aimed at generating economic activities including infrastructure development, creating jobs for the locals and bringing an end to anti-state activities. 
For importers, the Gwadar Port will help save millions of dollars in demurrage cost. At present, oil suppliers and other companies have to pay hefty demurrage charges to shipping companies as ships have to wait for several days before getting a berth due to port congestion. 
Iranian investment 
After the Chinese came to Gwadar, Iran unveiled plans to set up the world’s largest oil refinery with capacity of 400,000 barrels per day at a cost of $8 billion. It also expressed interest in establishing power plants at the port. 
However, the US pressure against the Iran-Pakistan pipeline stalled the refinery project, which could have met not only Pakistan’s oil needs, but also provided the surplus for export to China. 
According to officials, China meets 50% of its oil demand from the Middle East, from where the supply line to China travels over 10,000 km through the Dubai-Shanghai-Urumqi route.
On the contrary, the crude oil processed and refined at the Gwadar oil refinery can be exported to China through the shortest possible route – Dubai-Gwadar-Urumqi – spanning about 3,600 km. For this, an oil pipeline has been proposed through the energy corridor up to western China via Karakoram Highway and Khunjrab Bypass. 
As part of the Pak-China Economic Corridor that will turn Pakistan into a hub of regional cooperation, the Gwadar Port will be connected through road, rail and fibre links to China to enhance trade between the two countries. Oil and gas pipelines are also part of the corridor over the long run, which will boost economic activities in Balochistan, officials say. 
So far, work on the port has been slow because of poor condition of roads. This underlines the need for the government to lay railway tracks from Gwadar to other ports of the country, which will save freight and encourage importers to bring cargoes through Gwadar. 
Published in The Express Tribune, June 23rd, 2014.
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